In the world of capitalism, booms and busts cycle. This is called economic fluctuation. In other words, a recession always comes, and Japan has been hit by recessions many times.
Even in the recession, 1991 (Heisei 3) -2002 (Heisei 14) Long-term Great Recession [ Heisei Recession ] Is also new to my memory.
This Heisei recession is very different from the recessions we have experienced so far, and it was a new type of recession that occurred due to the adverse effects of the bursting of the bubble during the natural recession cycle. Since Japan had never experienced a recession before, the government was unable to respond well, and the recession was prolonged.
Circular recession + bubble burst The Heisei recession is [ complex recession ] It seems that it is sometimes called.
So, this time, I would like to write about the Heisei recession, which is also called the lost decade.
Why did the Heisei recession occur?
The cause of the Heisei recession was the policy that the government took to curb the economy in order to stop the overheated bubble economy.
Before that, what is the bubble economy ...
Due to the booming economy that occurred from the end of the Showa period to the beginning of the Heisei period, real estate and stock prices soared more than the real economy . Then, it was the time when Japan became a rich fever.
However, the prices of real estate and stocks, which have risen sharply, fall quickly, and have plunged since around 1990. This will cause great damage to people and companies that have invested in real estate and stocks.
Banks were among the companies that suffered great damage.
March 1990 The Japanese government said to banks that had been lending in a booming economy, [ the abnormal rise in real estate prices today is because banks are lending to people who want to buy real estate. strong> ] Will be notified.
In short, [ Isn't it a little overkill just because it's profitable? ] So, in order to return the real estate price to an appropriate level, the government [ restricts lending to real estate ] I decided to do it. In addition, it has launched policies to curb the overheated economy, such as raising the official discount rate and setting a land value tax.
As a result, we succeeded in stopping the heated bubble economy. However, it caused a crash in stock and real estate prices and pushed the switch for the bursting of the bubble economy.
The Nikkei Stock Average plunged to half of October 1990, and real estate prices peaked in 1992 and began to plummet. The real economy also retreated in 1991, and the Heisei recession started.
What happened in the Heisei recession? ??
Events that occurred in the Heisei recession- Bankruptcy of banks and securities companies
- Bank credit crunch
- Restructuring / Reduction of salary
- Slow consumption
Bank bankruptcy
Due to the bursting of the bubble economy, the management of many companies deteriorated, and many companies were unable to repay the money borrowed from banks. If this happens, banks that cannot collect their debts will fall into a chain of business slumps.
For such times, banks have collateralized real estate owned by companies, but this real estate collateral did not work well in the Heisei recession.
Banks decided the amount of collateral by referring to the real estate price that had been soaring due to the bubble economy, so even if the land was seized and sold, the loaned money could not be recovered and many banks suffered losses.
Bank management continued to deteriorate, and finally 1998 Hokkaido Takushoku Bank goes bankrupt have done. When a bank went bankrupt, the companies that were receiving loans from that bank also stopped lending, which put them in a difficult situation.
Therefore, the bankruptcy of Hokkaido Takushoku Bank was particularly serious for the economic damage in Hokkaido.
Bankruptcy of a securities company
1997 , Yamaichi Securities of a major securities company that suffered great damage from the stock market crash Was forced out of business.
Yamaichi Securities covered the customer's loss at the company and concealed it with fraudulent accounting so that the customer who suffered the loss due to the crash would not leave Yamaichi Securities.
Yamaichi Securities should have been able to recover the compensation if the stock price returned, so it would have been better if the stock price did not return to the bubble period, and the loss increased as the fraudulent accounting was repeated, and the head was turned around. It wasn't there.
The bankruptcy and closure of Hokkaido Takushoku Bank and Yamaichi Securities had a great impact on people.
Bank credit crunch
The remaining banks were all difficult to manage, and I was able to survive with the support of the government.
Loans that had been well-worn in the bubble economy changed completely in the Heisei recession, and the conditions for lending became strict and the lending reluctance began.
Due to the credit crunch of banks, even healthy companies could not receive loans, and many companies began to lean. In particular, there were many credit crunches of small and medium-sized enterprises, which was a big influence.
Restructuring and salary reduction
Companies whose business conditions have deteriorated due to the credit crunch of banks are forced to revise their management policies.
As part of this, we will abolish non-profitable businesses and cost cut . to hold. Companies dismiss excess personnel restructuring The movement of is activated.
The unemployment rate, which was 2.1% in 1990, has increased and more than doubled to 5.4% in 2002.
Those who escaped restructuring were also affected by salary cuts, and companies began to forgo hiring new graduates.
Many of the generations who graduated from school from 1993 to 2005 could not get a regular job due to the Heisei recession, so this generation is employment ice age generation . May be called.
Slow consumption
Disasters such as restructuring, salary cuts, and employment difficulties have a great impact on people's consumption. Flashy shopping such as during the bubble era will decrease, and bargain shops will become popular.
Furthermore, the consumption tax hike in 1997 and the Asian currency crisis added to the impact, and consumption further cooled, leading to lower prices. [ Deflation =Deflation ]
If deflation continues, companies will no longer be available, so salary cuts and restructuring will accelerate, and consumption will stagnate. [ Deflation Spiral ] Continued and contributed to the prolongation of the Heisei recession.
The end of the Heisei recession and the Japanese economy after that
The Japanese economy has finally become stable at around 1 to 2%, which had been around 0% since around 2002. In this way, the Heisei recession ended in 2002, and the economy was booming from 2002 to 2008 [ Izanami economy . ] Continued.
However, a growth rate of 1-2% GDP was not a complete recovery, and people's consumption remained sluggish. Also, despite the booming economy, the wages of workers could not be expected to increase, so most people could not feel the economy.
Lehman shock in the United States in 2008 without feeling a boom Will occur, the Izanami economy will end, and Japan will enter a recession again.
This recession was so booming that I didn't really feel it, so many people think that the 20 years from the burst of the bubble economy in 1991 to the economic recovery in 2012 from the Lehman shock is a recession. strong> Lost 20 years ] It is also said.
Although Japan is out of the Heisei recession, it does not have the bright atmosphere of a bubble economy. Furthermore, in Japan, income disparity is widening and the birthrate is declining and the population is aging . The government is still implementing various policies to overcome deflation and improve the sluggish economic growth rate.