Let's assume that the Polish soldiers could stop the German offensive, and maybe even launch an effective counterattack. It wouldn't change anything. The fate of the September campaign was decided on the very first day.
There is no doubt that Stalin intended to regain the territories lost by Russia after World War I. This was evidenced by his subsequent moves not only in relation to Poland, but also to the Baltic states and Finland. The Soviet dictator, however, did not strive for war at any cost. He waited until the international situation was favorable to him so that he could implement his intentions at the lowest possible cost.
We can get something for ourselves here, comrades
Observing the situation in Europe, Stalin became certain that sooner or later a new conflict on a large scale must break out. He also saw the powerlessness of the Western powers against the aggressive actions of the Third Reich. Moreover, the Soviet Commander did not hide his plans for Poland at all.
Stalin made it clear long before September 17, 1939 that he would attack Poland as soon as the opportunity arose (source:public domain).
For example, on October 28, 1938, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vladimir Potemkin, said to the French ambassador in Moscow: I see no other option for us than the fourth partition of Poland . There is no doubt that the diplomat presented the position of Stalin himself. The centralized system of power in the USSR did not allow for its own opinions.
On August 19, 1939, at a secret meeting of the Politburo, Stalin explained to his party comrades what profits would be gained by signing the treaty with Germany. He then stated, inter alia:
If we accept the German proposal to conclude a non-aggression pact with them, it will enable the Germans to attack Poland and thus the intervention of England and France will become a fact. (...) We will be able to usefully wait for the right moment to join a conflict or achieve a goal in a different way.
The Fourth Partition of Poland
During the negotiations with Germany, Stalin accepted without batting an eye the proposal to divide the spheres of influence in Central and Eastern Europe. Half of our country, among others, went to him. In return, the Red Tsar guaranteed his loyalty to Hitler's envoys no matter what. His words are quoted by Roger Moorhouse in the book Devil's Pact:
The Soviet Union cares about a strong Germany, and in the event of an armed conflict between Germany and Western democracies, the interests of the Soviet Union and Germany would be completely convergent. The Soviet Union will never allow Germany to be put in a difficult position.
The signing of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact. The fate of Poland has been sealed (source:public domain).
In view of the above statement, it should be presumed that even a decisive intervention of England and France would not force Stalin to withdraw from the attack on Poland. At the time of signing the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, the fate of our country was properly sealed.
Great preparations of the Red Army
From August 24, the Red Army conducted a secret concentration of its troops. On September 3, Marshal Voroshilov, People's Commissar for Defense, introduced a state of high alert in the military districts whose units were to participate in the invasion. The secret mobilization of reservists has also begun.
Instructors of the Soviet special services to prepare subversive activities were transferred to the Polish Eastern Borderlands . At the same time, Beria ordered the formation of ten NKVD special groups. The commander of each of them received a 300-strong army battalion. Their task was to occupy the most important objects of military, police and administrative infrastructure in the conquered territories.
Media campaign
On September 9, 1939, Stalin described the benefits of the break-up of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in a conversation with the head of the Comintern, Georg Dmitrov:
Destroying this country in the present situation means there is one less fascist state. What is wrong if, as a result of the pogrom of Poland, we extended the socialist system to new territories and new people .
At a time when the Germans were advancing deep into Poland, Soviet propaganda was not idle. Among other things, she reported a series of border incidents involving Polish aviation that were supposed to violate the airspace of the USSR (source:public domain).
At the same time, the Soviets conducted a slanderous, anti-Polish media campaign, very similar in content to the Nazi one. For example, in the announcement of September 14, the TASS agency reported a series of border incidents involving Polish aviation that were supposed to violate the airspace of the USSR.
In turn, the Moscow-based Pravda informed readers about the causes of the military defeat of Poles. It was supposed to result from the failure of the Polish authorities to respect the rights of national minorities, i.e. Ukrainians and Belarusians.
The extreme poverty of this population and its cruel and inhuman exploitation by great landowners were also emphasized. The average Soviet citizen would draw one conclusion from this:no wonder we came to their aid!
Shameful conference
Despite the urging of the Germans, Stalin waited. Then, in the second decade of September, two events took place which probably influenced the decision on the final date of the attack on our country.
On September 12, 1939, a Franco-British conference was held in Abbeville with the participation of both prime ministers and the highest military commanders. The commander-in-chief of the allied forces, General Maurice Gamelin, wrote Poland down and decided to stop offensive actions against the Germans.
Two days earlier, Gamelin brazenly lied, solemnly assuring Marshal Rydz-Śmigły about taking the offensive on the Western Front by half of the Allied forces. Neither the Polish authorities nor the head of the French military mission in Poland were informed about the decisions made in Abbeville.
General Maurice Gamelin wrote Poland down very quickly (source:public domain).
Comrade Stalin knew very well about everything. Soviet intelligence had an extensive intelligence network in France and Great Britain among journalists, military and politicians, even in the immediate vicinity of French Prime Minister Daladier. The Soviets knew that England and France would do nothing to come to Poland's aid.
The second event decisive for the launch of the attack on Poland took place on September 15 in Moscow. The Soviet Union then signed an armistice with Japan, which ended a series of border clashes between the two countries. In this way, Stalin secured his rear and avoided a war on two fronts. The road to Poland was open.
On September 17, 1939, the Soviets stuck a knife in our back. The photo shows the Red Army soldiers entering Poland (source:public domain).
Knife in the back
September 17, 1939 620 thousand soldiers supported by 4,733 tanks and 3,289 aircraft struck the eastern territories of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. By the end of hostilities, these forces were to increase to 2.5 million people. By breaking a number of international agreements, the Soviets dealt a fatal blow to Poland. Unfortunately for us, Hitler had an ally who kept his word. And we? Evaluate it for yourself…