Japan is currently facing population problems with a declining birthrate, an aging population, and a declining population.
To maintain Japan's population, the total fertility rate should be 2.07 or higher. The birth rate in 1973 dropped from 2.14 to 1.26 in 2005.
After that, it picked up a little and continued in the first half of 1.4, but the number of children born has not increased due to the declining population of women who can give birth. In 2017, the minimum number of births since the start of the national survey was about 946,000.
It can be said that Japan has already entered a declining population after peaking in 2008.
On the other hand, the aging rate is increasing year by year, and Japan will have to support many elderly people with a small working-age population of 15 to 65 years old.
In response to this situation in Japan, the government has put in place policies to counter the declining birthrate and improve the working environment for women. In a declining population, there is a chronic shortage of people, so it is necessary to have many women in the labor force.
If the labor force participation rate of women increases, more people will be able to support the elderly.
But why did Japan have such a declining birthrate and an aging population? ??
Japan's population and career advancement rate during the Edo period
Since the middle of the Edo period, the Tokugawa Shogunate has conducted a census of the common people, excluding samurai and public houses, every five years. Looking at the results, the national population, which was 26.07 million in 1721, has not increased so much to 26.91 million in 1846.
The causes include the stagnation of agricultural land expansion and a series of famines. It is said that the population of Tenpo, one of the three major famines of the Edo period, has decreased by 1.25 million in five years.
The birth rate seems to have been higher than in modern times, but it is said to have been lower than in the Meiji and early Showa periods. At that time, [ prolific and prolific ] Not [ Middle-aged death ] It seems that it was an era.
Prewar Japanese family Nokatachi
Before the war, Japan was an era unrelated to the declining birthrate and aging population.
From the middle of the Meiji era to the early Taisho era, the birth rate is high but the mortality rate is also high. ] Was a continuous era. However, after 1920, due to the development of medical technology and the improvement of nutrition and hygiene environment, [ prolific and low death ] Will be welcomed.
Life expectancy in the early 1920s was 42 years old, but by 1935 it had increased to 46 years old.
The prewar family form is very different from the current family form.
After World War I, graduated from university in Tokyo and Osaka and became a salaryman [ new middle class ] Was born, and in these homes, [ housewives ] Was born. Still, many people were engaged in this era [ agriculture ] So, my husband and wife were engaged in farm work regardless.
In large merchants, unrelated servants often lived as members of the family, and it was not uncommon for men to have concubinage in the upper class.
It wasn't until after the war that the current family shape was created.
The number of full-time housewives will increase during the period of high economic miracle
During the period of high economic miracle that began around 1955, [ wife's becoming a full-time housewife progressed in the home. 】was. It was the same in Europe and the United States that the proportion of full-time housewives increased with the postwar economic growth.
The background to this is the shift of industry from agriculture to industry.
In an industrialized society, unlike agriculture, workers commute to factories and offices. However, if both husband and wife commute to work, the family will be thin, so [ husband works outside and wife protects the family ], The division of gender roles has progressed.
In addition, it was said that the economic environment where wives do not have to work due to the increase in workers' incomes.
At the same time, the birthrate is declining.
The birth rate, which had exceeded 4 in the first half of the 1940s, began to decline rapidly in the 1950s and remained at 2.1-2.2 units.
The number of full-time housewives is increasing, and the birth rate is likely to increase due to the time it takes to raise children, but that was not the case. In an industrialized society, advanced knowledge and skills are required, so it was advantageous to have a high degree of education. Therefore, [ give birth less and raise it carefully with sufficient educational expenses ] Was selected.
The period of high economic miracle has come to an end [ Housewife era ] Also marks the end.
The rise in husband's income slows down and he has to work together.
Also, from around this time, the expansion of the tertiary industry has led to an increase in the number of occupations that are considered to be suitable for women, such as interpersonal services.
Late marriage begins and unmarried progresses
The factors behind the decline in the birth rate are [the number of couples who do not have children even if they get married] [the number of people who are not married in the first place] There are two factors, but in Japan the latter is a major factor It has become.
The decline in the birth rate in Japan began in the mid-1970s, and the average number of married couples giving birth did not change to 2.2 from the 1970s to the 2000s, but has been declining since then. became.
Diversification of values is one of the factors that increased the number of unmarried people, but the biggest factor is economic factor . Probably.
1975 is the year when high economic miracle ended. In the low-growth era, the income of male workers began to slow down. If your salary is low, you will not be able to run a family. What happened there was to postpone the marriage until the salary reached a certain standard.
Around this time, the unmarried rate in the early 20s and early 30s began to rise, especially for men. Even so, the unmarried rate remained low throughout his life, and although he was late married, he was in a state of getting married.
However, the situation has changed since the mid-1990s, and the lifetime unmarried rate has also risen due to an increase in the number of young people whose future income is uncertain due to unstable economic conditions such as employment of non-regular workers. I started to do it.
Instead of postponing the marriage due to financial instability, the young people who will lead the future have given up on the marriage itself.
Nippon 100 Million Total Success Plan
Shinzo Abe Cabinet in 2016 [ Nippon 100 Million Total Success Plan ] Has been announced.
The content is [ birth rate 1.8 In order to realize this, it is necessary to expand child-rearing support and create an environment where women can play an active role in society.
For some people, [ the decline in fertility is because women prioritize work ] It seems that many people think that it is different. In Europe and the United States, there are data showing that the birth rate has improved in countries where the labor force participation rate of women has increased since 2000.
Other developed countries are facing a declining birthrate, though not as much as Japan. It is believed that this is due to the destabilization of youth employment and the fact that many couples cannot afford to raise their children.
Family income can be raised by working together, but it will be difficult to balance with child-rearing. In countries where the birth rate is recovering, governments are expanding support for balancing work and child-rearing, and companies are beginning to allow flexible working styles.
In this way, it was possible to improve the birth rate while increasing the labor force participation rate of women.
With this kind of policy, even in Japan, the birth rate has been on a gradual recovery trend after hitting the bottom in 2005, and the labor force participation rate of women is also increasing. Even so, the numbers are still small, so it will be necessary to keep an eye on future policies and keep an eye on the changes.