June 28, 2014 marked the 100th anniversary of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. His death ignited the European powder keg and would lead to a devastating world war in just over a month. How could it come to this? A diptych about how the First World War started.
“Lights are going out all over Europe,” British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Gray mused as he stared out of his ministry window in the twilight of August 3, 1914. "And we won't see them go on again in our lifetime," he added grimly. He was referring to the European war that had just broken out. Those were terrifying words from Grey. But chances are he put them in his own mouth when, in 1925, with knowledge of what was to follow, he published his memoirs.
In the two days before that, Germany had already declared war on British allies France and Russia. The German army would advance against France via Belgium, and Great Britain had promised to assist Belgium in such a case.
Like most European diplomats, Gray probably expected a short and orderly war. According to good European custom, fighting for a few months at the most to shake up political relations and restore the disturbed balance of power between the great powers. This happened often in the nineteenth century. But this time it all went wrong. The 'little war' soon became a hopeless slaughter in muddy trenches.
Diplomatic swamp
Looking back, you might say that the war had been in preparation for years. Long before 1914, military alliances were being forged in Europe and the great powers were arming themselves to the teeth. But that is with hindsight. What exactly happened in the "July Crisis", the month after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand on June 28, 1914 and the outbreak of war in early August?
The run-up to the First World War, and in particular the 'July Crisis', is one of the best-researched periods of the twentieth century. After the war, the victors France, England and the US designated the losing Germany as the aggressor. The humiliating peace terms and massive reparations imposed on Germany sparked the rise of Hitler, the Third Reich, and the far more destructive World War II within 15 years.
Was that all-important charge to Germany after World War I justified? How could a seemingly insignificant assassination attempt lead to a European war within a short period of time? Why and by whom was the fire lit? Or perhaps 'failure of international diplomacy' made war inevitable anyway? (also read the Kennislink article 'Debt to the trenches')
There are still many questions, but few definitive answers. This is evident from all the new studies published this year. Most of them mainly show what a diplomatic quagmire Europe was at the beginning of the twentieth century. Yet there are politicians who bear responsibility. And they certainly didn't just work in Berlin or Vienna.
Evil Nationalists
A dangerous ball started rolling when Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie Chotek were assassinated on June 28, 1914, in the Bosnian city of Sarajevo in the Balkans. Franz Ferdinand was the heir apparent of Austria-Hungary, a gigantic country in Central Europe that at that time stretched from Tyrol to present-day Ukraine.
Austria-Hungary was a multi-ethnic country full of internal tensions. Within the vast borders (see map below) all kinds of different population groups lived, on whom nationalism gained more and more traction. There was no question of any democracy:only a small group of Austrian and Hungarian aristocrats had political power. The country has been ruled by the ancient Emperor Franz Joseph I since 1848.
In 1908 Austria-Hungary had annexed independent Bosnia. The South Slavic peoples in particular – Serbs, Croats, Bosniaks – were increasingly relegated to second-class citizens within the empire. That angered nationalists of mainly Serbian descent. It was therefore a fanatical Serbian nationalist – twenty-year-old Gavrilo Princip – who, together with some friends, plotted a plot and shot the imperial couple.
Celebrations broke out in the Serbian capital Belgrade because of the enormous blow the Serbs had inflicted on their oppressors. The government around Emperor Franz Joseph was furious. Within days, military action against Serbia was already hinted at. Gavrilo Princip was found to have ties to the feared organization Zwarte Hand; a radical group of Serbian nationalists whose purpose was to forcibly undermine Austro-Hungarian power in the Balkans.
Alliances
The government in Vienna immediately accused the small neighboring country of Serbia of being complicit in a conspiracy against the Empire. Military retaliation was soon in the air. But everyone was aware of potentially major consequences. An attack on Serbia would inevitably provoke a Russian response. Russia saw the Slavic peoples in the Balkans as blood brothers. In addition, the Russians were very keen to maintain their influence in the area because that was the only access road to the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, Russia had a strong military alliance with France and Great Britain; the 'Triple Entente'.
This great military alliance was directed against the new and very rapidly growing German power in Europe. In 1871, the German Empire was created after a glorious German victory over France during the Franco-Prussian War. Since then, France has struggled with feelings of revenge and was determined one day to recapture the two lost provinces of Alsace and Lorraine from Germany. At the same time, great Russia was always at odds with its German ally Austria.
Chancellor Otto von Bismarck felt the hot breath of these two superpowers on his neck. Wanting to prevent another war, he concluded a defensive treaty with Russia and Austria-Hungary in 1873 (the so-called "League of the Three Emperors"). With that smart move, he wanted to both isolate France and keep rising tensions between Austria-Hungary and Russia under control. Their rivalry in the Balkans could one day spark a European war, Bismarck thought.
Despite this union, the Russians and the Austrians remained at odds. In 1888, Kaiser Wilhelm II took office as Emperor of Germany. Wilhelm II fired Bismarck and began to adopt a less cautious foreign policy. Russia then left the alliance and concluded a military treaty with France in 1894. In response, Germany began to further strengthen its army and especially its navy. Great Britain, which had undisputed superiority at sea, realized in 1907 that not Russia, with whom it had always had (mainly colonial) conflicts, but Germany posed the greatest threat to them. In 1907 London joined the Russo-French alliance.
Incidentally, this alliance initially made a war with Germany more unlikely than inevitable. French, British and Russian interests were far apart. They certainly weren't willing to fight for each other just like that. But Germany had been warned. Berlin was deeply concerned. The burgeoning arms race between Germany and Britain only increased tensions.
Personal help request
Austria-Hungary, however, had always maintained its alliance with Germany and now hoped to take advantage of it. In 1914 the German Empire was economically and militarily the strongest power on the European mainland. German support in a military action against Serbia would have such a deterrent effect on the Russians that they would not intervene, the Austrians thought. As a third power, Italy was also a member of this 'Triple Alliance', although Italian loyalty was always questionable. The country was militarily weak and at odds with Austria-Hungary.
Considering all this, shortly after the assassination of his heir apparent, Franz Joseph sent a personal request for help to the German Emperor Wilhelm II, in which he already hinted at his intentions:"This murder came from a well-organized conspiracy, the lines of which extend as far as Belgrade. Austria-Hungary is not safe until Serbia is neutralized as a power factor...'