Speaking of the Sahel, it is considered that, withdrawing or hastily remodeling the region's military forces now, as is being debated in France by announcing the possible end of Operation Barkhane, which would affect other European forces, would produce regional chaos that would entail, given the extension of the territory (of the size of Western Europe) and its weak political context, facilitating the entry of jihadists into the area and the possible substitution of such forces by others, or support, from Russia and China, and even Iran and Pakistan.
We do not want the conflict to become entrenched, "Vietnamese" or become a new Afghanistan, with its capital, Kabul, converted into another Saigon, after the departure of US and allied forces, scheduled in principle for September 11, 2021, now brought forward in mid-August, by presidential order (a decision that the Intelligence Services and the Pentagon did not consider timely), following the established agreement by the previous president, Donald Trump, with the Taliban to withdraw US troops as a condition for negotiating peace.
The failure of the United States and the Talibanization of Afghanistan
Thus, US forces are already leaving Afghanistan (with the rest of international troops under the NATO umbrella, including the Spanish[1]), after 20 years of presence in declared war on Islamic extremism, without knowing (although it is intuited that they already knew) according to analysts if, after that "endless war", unpopular in the US , the objective of "building a state strong enough so that it will not be transmuted into a base for international terrorism and that allows Afghans to live in peace" has been achieved; threat more than possible that was already alerted by the UN through a report to the case of its Security Council upon learning of the aforementioned decision.
He doubts that the most pessimistic, including the US military, believe that it will become a reality in the face of the Taliban who, free from US armed pressure, are more interested in the solution military than in a peace negotiation process; reason why they are willing to return to their approaches, even to civil war; some Taliban who, without a regular army but with militias with a lot of combat experience, also consider that they never lost the war against the US , that the (regular) US forces have been defeated, and more so when, given the continued march of said forces and allies, they are affirming that they have won; some Taliban that still have a lot of strength since they control the country and that, with greater freedom of movement (with the disappearance of all information and war air support), have been able to concentrate forces currently equipped with sophisticated weapons to occupy large rural areas, seize various border crossings with Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Pakistan, conquer districts and provincial capitals. What has become effective in just ten days with his entry into Kabul (where some suicide attacks were previously carried out; the last one against the Minister of Defense, who escaped unharmed, on August 4), a city that, according to the opinion of the American Intelligence Services, it was supposed to fall into their hands in two or three months.
They take over the country with which they could be able to become a reserve of jihadists, once again constituting a platform for the promotion of terrorism (they continue to relate to Al Qaeda ), which could re-emerge by building a new jihadist base, taking into account that, in addition, they will not encounter resistance in the absence of foreign forces,
Absence that has revealed the large number of displaced civilians fleeing to neighboring countries, Turkey and Europe across the Aegean, as well as the recent (as of July 4, 2021) to Tajikistan of 1,037 soldiers of the Afghan army, fleeing in armed confrontation with the Taliban; a very low army morale before the march, taken as abandonment to their fate, of the US troops and allies that, on occasions, despite their counter-offensives, have surrendered without fighting the jihadists due to the precariousness of their forces, the lack of water, food and ammunition in some of their detachments; an army that has been trained, instructed, equipped with weapons and means of combat but has not been able to suppress its fear of the Taliban who threaten their families and spread terror by assassinating those civilians they consider linked to the Government, as well as to all the captured soldiers and policemen; an army with corrupt commanders who falsified data to the allies to fatten the economic support to receive.
Thus, despite calls for peace by the United Nations, there is no possible political settlement as the mujahideen continue to stand with their ideas , and they ask, in order to reach an agreement, in addition to the departure of all foreign forces, advisers, trainers, etc., the application in their country of the sharia with all its fanatical rigor full of cruelty, especially towards women ( which is already causing a migratory disaster); ideas that have not been fought for a long time to convince them to reach an agreed peace for their country and that are not likely to change in the face of foreign requests (such as those from the US and EU countries, including Spain) to put an end to their intolerance.
Taliban (Islamic theology students) who took power in 1996 and who were overthrown by the US and its allies in 2001, and who continue to aspire to govern the country, without sharing power, subjecting it to jihadist rigor; however, although it uses terrorism as a means, it does not follow the idea of the "global caliphate" maintained by Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, although it receives some support.
A clear example of the inability of everyone, both Americans and their allies, including Spain, to defeat jihadism, the Taliban in this case, by not ending their fanatical ideology.
An announced failure, both in the political field, by not being able to establish a sufficiently legitimate and representative Government in twenty years (confirmed with the flight of President Ashraf Ghani, along with the warlords and their forces) and in the military, for not having been able to finish off the Taliban, the main objective of their invasion in October 2001, despite all their numerical superiority and technology.
A failure, therefore, on the ideological front, and on the structural front despite some progress, which has led to failure on the operational or military front.
Elements that alarmed the Pentagon at the unstoppable return of the Taliban to the beat of the vacuum left by the US forces; vacuum that China intends to fill through agreements with the Taliban , interested in peace to participate in the development of the country and prevent Uyghur terrorist actions in the Chinese region of Xhijang by the Islamist and independence group, East Turkestan Islamic Movement (EITM)).
Which means, given what was obviously going to happen, a scandalous failure of the US intelligence services and/or the existence of some economic interests that have been able to deal with the foreseeable reality, and, likewise, with what is happening, a failure for the international community that is only reacting with meetings to discuss the situation and words that they consider «pressure international”, and not with defining concrete facts, except for the closure of embassies, the departure of their nationals and the evacuation of Afghans and families who supported the intervention forces, which is, in a way, a flight; Forced flight for some countries due to the withdrawal of the largest force, the United States.
In addition, regardless of what the US justifies, the objectives set out in a local development strategy, the creation of security forces, police, and Afghan army have not been met , in addition to leaving the negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban stalled.
Thus, the US, in addition to not defeating them, has not managed to weaken them, nor have they made progress towards establishing a peace agreement, indeed, the Taliban point out that in order to reach to him all the foreign forces of their country must first leave. A situation that, given the increase in Taliban terrorist attacks and other terrorist "incidents" that they deny, leads the US and allies, given the scant achievements in the country, to the starting point.
And in this environment, “the Taliban and the government accuse each other of blocking the Doha talks , with which the US was trying to reach a political settlement before the withdrawal of its troops”. A withdrawal that leaves behind a weak Afghan army, which is handed over empty military bases, unable to solve the problem created with the consequent power vacuum.
Lessons learned?
Given such a situation and the forecasts considered, it seems that the maxim of "Afghanistan, graveyard of empires" and the Taliban saying "you [the Americans and allies] have the watches, [we] have the time”; time to persist in war.
Similarly, in the case of the Sahel, since there is a certain similarity of conditions, there would be a risk, according to some analysts, “of getting bogged down [of the French forces] in a war in which no one knows how to define exactly what a victory would represent”; hence, to avoid it, President Macron's plan (presented without consulting his European and international partners, including the G7 and NATO) to carry out a profound transformation of the French military presence in the Sahel “[Europeanizing] the international [military] presence and [reinforcing] the responsibilities of the forces of the States of the region” (militarization of the Sahel in another way); plan that leads to Operation Barkhane (because of the wear and tear suffered and the mistrust towards Mali and Burkina, which are said to be in favor of negotiating with the jihadists), to end in its current form and be replaced, throughout for several years, by the action of a joint force made up of special operations units from various European countries under French leadership; issue that would have possibly been raised at the next NATO summit on June 14 in Brussels.
Be that as it may we must be fully aware of the price that is going to be paid with the establishment of an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan , covering an important part of the map of the global caliphate, and the influence that this can exert on all jihadists, exacerbating their anti-Western aggressiveness.
[1] On May 13, the last Spanish soldiers from Afghanistan arrived in Spain. Thus ends the longest mission of the Spanish Army abroad. 27,000 troops have passed through that country for 19 years (their largest deployment in 2010 with 1,549); mission that has suffered 79 attacks and armed incidents, with 100 soldiers, 2 police officers and 2 translators killed. Spain took over the town of Harat, in the west of the country, and the national reconstruction team in nearby Qala-Naw, where it established a base.