Never before has technology developed so rapidly as it does now, right? No, says economist Robert Gordon. According to him, there were much more important innovations in the period between 1870 and 1970.
The Internet has already drastically changed our lives. We can now communicate with each other at lightning speed almost anywhere in the world. There are handy apps on Smartphones and Tablets that partly make life more pleasant. In the past, employees of companies still fumbled with faxes and it took a long time before a letter was finally delivered. We can hardly imagine how slow communication was then. Or think of the robots that are on the rise. For example, they rescue people or point the way to lost travelers at Schiphol Airport. Lately, inventions have followed each other in rapid succession.
Maze of data
But Robert Gordon isn't all that impressed with innovations like the internet, smartphones, apps and email. He argues that the current innovation is dwarfed by the great discoveries between 1870-1970. Gordon believes that our time cannot match that period.
He wrote a stimulating, controversial and strongly substantiated book about it:The Rise and Fall of American Growth. Gordon is not the first one. He is a leading economist and professor of social sciences at Northwestern University in the United States. As you might expect, the economist doesn't just say something. In the bulky book, he substantiates his statements with an enormous amount of data. It is full of numbers, tables and graphs. Gordon guides the reader through a maze of data.
To understand what Gordon means, we have to go back in time to 1870. Most people then still used a large tub for bathing, often only going in once a month. Only one room was heated in the house, many useful and time-saving devices such as a washing machine did not yet exist and traveling took a very long time and was not comfortable.
One hundred years later, the difference is huge. There is sewage, running water and electricity almost everywhere. As early as 1940, eighty percent of Americans in cities had flush toilets; virtually all residents also had access to electricity. In addition, the lift made high-rise buildings possible. At the same time, new modes of transport emerged such as trains, planes, cars and bicycles. In healthcare, antibiotics were used and X-rays were used.
Flying car
“The economic revolution between 1870 and 1970 is unique in history and not to be repeated because the great achievements could only happen once,” Gordon writes. He is particularly impressed by the speed with which the innovations were introduced.
Gordon shows in detail the impact these innovations had on ordinary people. It is impressive how many figures he presents. For example, he uses data to show what people mainly wore for clothes, where they lived, what they ate and even where they bought food. All these developments show an enormous growth in prosperity.
Developments went so fast in these decades that in the 1970s it was thought that we would have a flying car in the near future. Or at least some kind of flying carpet. But it didn't come to that. Instead, we still drive cars that have looked much the same for decades. Of course, more and more technical gadgets are being introduced, but that is peanuts compared to the development of the means of transport itself, according to Gordon.
Debate
Gordon's book is thought provoking. Recently I read an interview with economist and Guardian columnist Paul Mason in Vrij Nederland. He emphasized that today's teens, twenties and thirties have experienced the fastest technological revolution we have ever seen.
Gordon therefore disputes this. We are always impressed by the innovations of an existing product. An even faster computer, for example. Pretty clever according to Gordon, but above all more of the same. He cites the American investor Robert Thiel, who states:"We were hoping for flying cars, all we got was 140 characters (Twitter - ed.)."
Is Gordon right? This is an ongoing debate, especially in the United States. In an interview with NRC Handelsblad, Gordon said that Bill Gates, the founder of Microsoft, thinks his book is bad. Nobel laureate and Princeton economics professor Paul Krugman responded more nuanced. “This book will challenge your views about the future. It will definately transform how you see your past,” he writes in an excellent article in The New York Times.
Sphere of numbers
Gordon hasn't convinced me yet. I think that after 1970 we have also seen an impressive development in the field of communication and robots that the economist too easily puts aside. On the other hand, Gordon is very convincing when he states that the change between 1870 and 1970 is greater than between 1970 and now. But that is largely because there were few innovations before 1870 and the level of prosperity was low.
Incidentally, it argues for Gordon that he does not just say something, but solidly substantiates his statements with a lot of data. The economist clearly explains why he makes certain comparisons or does or does not use certain statistics. Yet it is more than a book that is full of numbers. It also reads like a well-written history book. Gordon looks at how families lived and where they lived, what they ate. He also tells the story of different generations and constantly shows that behind the numbers are real people.