From Syrian gays being thrown from a roof to attacks in Jakarta, Istanbul, Ouagadougou and Marseille:the Islamic State again made a strong statement last week. How did this terror group become so powerful and how can it be fought? Terrorism expert and IS expert Alex Schmid analyzes the strength and weakness of IS for Kennislink.
Three years ago, IS was just another obscure militant Islamist group in the Syrian civil war. However, the organization now has its own territory in Syria and Iraq, access to precious oil and IS is bombing the world with attacks. The group also dreams of world domination. Political scientist Alex Schmid recently wrote a paper on foreign fighters at IS, which the International Center for Counter-Terrorism published on its website this month. In it he also reveals how the flow of refugees from Syria and the power of IS are related and describes the context in which IS developed. Kennislink questions him about his research results.
Can you first give some reasons why IS has become so influential in such a short time?
“For that, we have to delve into the recent history of Syria and Iraq. The Sunnis in those countries have suffered so much under Presidents Assad and Maliki that they are determined to take the upper hand. For example, IS succeeded in recruiting not only extreme Muslims from the American-run prison camp of Bucca, but also many former Iraqi army officers who still served under Saddam Hussein. They see IS as an instrument to regain more power. The fact that these men are seasoned soldiers has greatly strengthened the power of the Islamic State until now.”
“In addition, IS has the support of a number of Sunnis from abroad, including wealthy sheikhs from Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia. There are also rumors that Turkey and the Saudi government sent weapons in the past. But IS also reflects the rise of a fanatical Salafist jihadist movement. IS and its allies now have a following of tens of thousands of jihadists worldwide. In fact, the number of sympathizers with the Salafist-jihadist ideology numbers tens of millions of Muslims – although in most Islamic countries they make up little more than ten percent of the total population.”
Alex Schmid became interested in terrorism when, during his PhD research on the Russian Civil War, he discovered that his great-grandparents had been killed in skirmishes between the Bolsheviks and the Tsar's army. His definition of terrorism is now used worldwide. In addition to the theory, he also spent many years practically engaged in counter-terrorism as Officer-in-Charge of the Terrorism Prevention Branch of the UN. Today, the Swiss with Dutch roots is a member of the Expert Group on Violent Radicalisation of the European Commission and associated with the International Center for Counter-Terrorism in The Hague.
“But that's not all. Unlike many other jihadist splinter groups – and other parties that are part of the Syrian opposition – IS is very determined and well-organized. This tight organization is reflected in the virtual world. She successfully sells the IS brand on the internet to vulnerable young men and women in the West with an Islamic and immigrant background.”
Much has been said about the motivations of such 'jihad teenagers'. What were the findings of your recent investigation into IS foreign fighters?
“While some of these foreign fighters are highly educated, most are less educated young men. They often come from broken homes, have become involved in drugs and crime, and some also have psychological problems. They seek change. They turn to a fundamentalist interpretation of militant Islam for this, because that is currently the only activist revolutionary model available – nationalism or communism are, after all, passé.”
“Most are second-generation immigrants, who feel discriminated against by native-born peers and confused about their cultural identity. They want to escape from their parents and their environment and IS recruiters offer them money and other incentives to go to Syria. For the same reasons, IS may also attract a relatively high number of women:about ten percent. In addition, recent converts to Islam are estimated to account for at least five percent of the outflow. There is clearly a 'market' for Utopia.”
Is Islam as a religion in itself so no role?
"Certainly. About 70 percent of all attacks worldwide are committed by people with a religious and especially Islamic background. You have to face that, instead of denying it for fear that people will call you an Islamophobe. Just as you could not separate the Crusades from Christianity, you cannot separate the jihad, the violent struggle to impose Islam on society, from Islam. At the same time, of course, it is a matter of interpretation:a large majority of all Muslims reject the IS view.”
How important are foreign jihadists to IS?
“Militarily they don't mean much. That may sound crazy, because the numbers are large. Some 30,000 foreign fighters from more than 100 countries – including a few hundred from the Netherlands – have joined the insurgents in Syria and Iraq; most of them went to IS. All in all, however, they are 'only' part of the organization. Compared to the Iraqis – who are also foreigners in Syria – European jihadists bring little fighting experience with them. Many also die very quickly because IS uses them as cannon fodder or suicide bombers.”
“At the same time, the suicide attacks by foreign sympathizers have a lot of impact, especially if they take place in Europe or elsewhere outside the region. It confirms the long arm of IS. It also increases the organization's ideological appeal. Incidentally, the numbers are now declining:after the proclamation of the caliphate there was a peak of thousands of wannabe foreign fighters who went to Syria. Later that number dropped to at least 1,000 newcomers per month.”
In addition to this migration to Syria, many Syrians are coming to Europe to settle here. According to IS experts, this has been a blow to IS:that Syrian Muslims prefer the infidel West over their caliphate. But from your most recent paper I understand that IS also benefits from the refugee flow?
"Secure. They make money from human trafficking by forcing the people smugglers they help to flee to Europe to pay them 'tax'. They also use the refugee flow as a cover to infiltrate Western democracies. However, it is difficult to estimate the extent of infiltration:probably less than 100 so far. Most of these dangerous 'returnees' also enter with their EU passports or with false IDs; they do not have to pretend to be refugees and make the risky journey to Europe. That more people are running away from IS than going there is an ideological problem, but it also creates free housing and other resources that they can give to incoming foreign fighters. In that respect, IS also benefits from the refugee flow.”
What are good strategies to defeat ISIS?
“It is important that here in the west we remove the breeding ground for discontent among young Muslims as much as possible, by making more efforts to promote equal opportunities. We should also perhaps avoid well-intentioned, but dramatic Western interventions such as those in Iraq in the future. In Syria itself, the bombing campaigns by France and its allies seem to be working; it controls IS and drives IS supporters out of certain areas.
“We should also make much more use of returned, disappointed ex-jihadists. If they would share their stories via social media, for example in exchange for a reduced sentence, that could give IS propaganda on the internet a serious blow. A refugee German jihadi, for example, told the German secret service how attacking Shiites is a goal of IS, instead of helping Muslims. He was also soon imprisoned as a traitor and had to watch an execution in the cell next to him. The guards then threw the victim's decapitated body into his cell. Such testimonies shatter the fairy tale that IS is trying to sell. And in contrast to Western parties, for example, ex-jihadists as 'those who have really been there' do enjoy legitimacy among the target group of IS. In that respect, Western jihadists are not just an asset to IS. In time, they can become an Achilles' heel.”